Recent trends in migration flows from the United States to Canada

Introduction

Canada has long been a destination for American expatriates because of its geographic proximity, familiar culture and similar socioeconomic environment. However, migration flows have historically fluctuated in response to economic, political and social factors (Boyd, 1981; Kobayashi & Ray, 2005). Notably, shifts in U.S. administration policies—particularly those affecting immigration, labour markets and social stability—have influenced U.S. residents’ intentions to move north (Croucher, 2011).

Media reports have offered mixed assessments of how political shifts in the United States impact migration to Canada (Benenson & Mattey, 2025; Cain, 2016; Singer, 2024). These reports primarily focus on U.S. citizens, overlooking the migration of U.S. non-citizen residents. This group is often more affected by U.S. immigration policy changes and is a key target of Canada’s efforts to attract high-skilled workers (Arnold, 2020; Rose, 2020). Additionally, little attention has been given to Canadian-born individuals and permanent residents who previously resided in the United States but returned to live in Canada.

This article examines recent trends in migration flows from the United States to Canada. U.S. immigrants are individuals who obtained permanent residency in Canada and whose country of birth, citizenship or last residence was the United States.^Note The analysis distinguishes five immigrant categories: (1) U.S.-born individuals whose last country of residence was the United States, (2) U.S. citizens born outside the United States, (3) U.S. non-citizen residents, (4) U.S. citizens who were temporary residents in Canada before obtaining Canadian permanent residency^Note and (5) U.S. citizens who were temporary residents in a third country before obtaining Canadian permanent residency. The analysis draws on data from the Longitudinal Immigration Database. The article also uses Canadian census data to estimate the number of Canadian-born individuals and Canadian permanent residents who previously lived in the United States and returned to live in Canada.

While this study explores whether migration flows from the United States to Canada align with changes in U.S. administrations, any observed patterns should not be interpreted as causal. Beyond political factors, economic conditions and personal motivations also influence migration decisions. The relative strength of U.S. and Canadian labour markets affects cross-border movement, as seen during the 2008 financial crisis, which led more Americans to seek jobs abroad (Singer & Wilson, 2009). Additionally, Canadian immigration policies—such as Express Entry for skilled workers and targeted programs for health care and technology professionals—may have facilitated migration from the United States since 2015 (Arnold, 2020).

Migration flows of U.S. citizens and residents to Canada

Chart 1 presents the number of U.S. immigrants to Canada, revealing several salient trends in their composition and numbers.

First, there have been significant changes in the composition of U.S. immigrant inflows to Canada based on U.S. citizenship status, country of birth and country of last residence. In the early 1980s, almost all immigrants were U.S. citizens, with more than three-quarters born and last residing in the United States. While this share declined in the following decade, it remained above two-thirds until the early 2010s, when it began to drop rapidly. Meanwhile, the proportion of U.S. non-citizen residents immigrating to Canada rose sharply from the early 2010s, reaching 45% in 2019—the year before the COVID-19 pandemic. The share of U.S. citizens who were previously temporary residents in Canada also increased significantly during this period, peaking at 54% in 2017 and fluctuating in subsequent years. The proportion of immigrants who were not born in the United States but acquired U.S. citizenship ranged from about 8% to 12% before the early 2010s but declined to 2% by the early 2020s. As a result of these shifts, the majority of U.S. immigrants to Canada in recent years have been either U.S. non-citizen residents or U.S. citizens who had already been living in Canada.^Note

Second, there was no clear correlation between changes in U.S. government administrations and the number of U.S. immigrants to Canada from the early 1980s to mid-2005. The decline in inflows during the early 1980s was a continuation of the gradual decline from a peak in the mid-1970s, following the end of the Vietnam War, and coincided with recessions in the United States and Canada (Kobayashi & Ray, 2005). Similarly, the decline in the early 1990s corresponded with an economic downturn and a reduction in overall immigration levels in Canada. Inflows of U.S. immigrants remained low until the early 2000s.

Data table for Chart 1

Third, fluctuations in U.S. immigration to Canada following changes in U.S. government administrations since the mid-2000s were associated with different categories of U.S. immigrants. U.S. citizen residents (both those born in and outside the United States) were the primary drivers of the increase in migration to Canada during the second term of the 43^rd presidential administration and the decline in the early years of the 44^th administration. In contrast, the rise in inflows during the initial years of the 45^th administration was driven primarily by U.S. non-citizen residents whose numbers quadrupled from 2,100 in 2016 to 9,310 in 2019. This may suggest that restrictive U.S. immigration policies—such as visa caps, delays in employment-based green cards and heightened deportation risks—pushed temporary migrants (e.g., H-1B workers and international students) to seek more stable opportunities in Canada. Conversely, U.S. immigration to Canada decreased by 20% in the first three years of the 46^th administration compared with the same point in the 45^th administration, despite a 38% increase in overall immigration during this period. This decline was primarily driven by U.S. non-citizen residents.

Returning Canadians from the United States

Chart 2 presents the estimated number of returning Canadian-born individuals and permanent residents^Note who lived in the United States five years prior but resided in Canada at the time of the census.^Note

The number of returning Canadian-born individuals increased by 92% from 1996 (under the 42^nd presidential administration) to 2006 (under the 43^rd administration) before declining by 29% from 2006 to 2016 (under the 44^th administration). Similarly, the number of returning Canadian permanent residents rose by 122% from 1996 to 2006, followed by a 23% decline over the next decade. These trends suggest that the trend of returning Canadians broadly aligned with changes in U.S. government administrations from the mid-1990s to the mid-2010s. From 2016 to 2021, there was a small decrease in the number of returning Canadian-born individuals (-6%), while the number of returning permanent residents increased by 15%. The inflow in the 2016-to-2021 period was likely affected by COVID-19 travel restrictions.

Data table for Chart 2

Returning Canadian-born individuals and permanent residents were more likely to be in their prime working years and had higher educational attainment than other Canadian-born individuals and permanent residents in Canada. In 2021, 58% of returning Canadian-born individuals and 72% of returning permanent residents were aged 25 to 64, compared with 50% of other Canadian-born individuals and 64% of other permanent residents. Among those in this age group, 64% of returning Canadian-born individuals and 70% of returning permanent residents held a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared with 27% of other Canadian-born individuals and 42% of other permanent residents. These findings suggest that individuals with higher levels of human capital tend to be more mobile.

In sum, there have been significant shifts in the composition of U.S. immigrants to Canada since the 1980s, when migration inflows were dominated by U.S. residents born in the United States. In recent years, the majority of U.S. immigrants to Canada have been either U.S. non-citizen residents or U.S. citizens who were temporary residents in Canada. These changes are likely driven in part by the large increase of temporary foreign workers in Canada and the increasing selection of immigrants from this pool (Hou, Crossman & Picot, 2020).

Additionally, the number of U.S. citizen residents (both those born in and outside the United States) moving to Canada increased during the second term of the 43^rd presidential administration and declined during the 44^th administration, whereas U.S. non-citizen residents moving to Canada quadrupled in the first three years of the 45^th administration and decreased under the 46^th administration. The movement of Canadian-born individuals and permanent residents returning from the United States also reflected shifts in U.S. government administrations.

Looking ahead, given the changing political and economic landscape in the United States, the results of this study could inform the potential immigration patterns of U.S. non-citizen and Canadian-born individuals currently living in the U.S. to Canada over the next several years.